The global cost of food waste surges to USD 540 billion—3 measures agriculture and the food chain should tackle right now

In 2026, the cost of global food waste is projected to reach 540 billion dollars. This is an increase from the previous year's 526 billion dollars, and if it continues at this pace, cumulative losses for 2025–2030 will reach 3.4 trillion dollars. This figure, reported by New Food Magazine based on experts' analysis, shows that the achievement of the UN SDGs Target 12.3, "halve food waste by 2030," is in an extremely difficult situation.

How large a scale is 540 billion dollars?

It is equivalent to about 13% of Japan's GDP (about 4.2 trillion dollars). The reality that the economic value lost by people around the world throwing away food is this enormous is not someone else's problem for those involved in agriculture and food processing.

Particularly serious is meat. The same report evaluates meat as "the most difficult category for the waste problem," and estimates that the economic loss worldwide will reach 94 billion dollars in 2026 alone.

The current state of food loss in Japan

In Japan, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and the Ministry of the Environment publish the food-loss volume every year. According to the most recent data, food loss is 5.23 million tons (FY2022). Of this, business-related is 2.79 million tons and household-related is 2.44 million tons.

Despite having a culture of "mottainai," more than 5 million tons of food is discarded annually. Converted per person, it works out to throwing away about one rice ball's worth of food every day.

Food loss that begins at the agricultural site

At agricultural sites, "out-of-spec vegetables" easily become a hotbed of waste. Vegetables that can't be shipped simply because they are misshapen, off-spec in size, or scratched are discarded in the growing region. Discarding produce that doesn't make it into distribution generates both income loss for farmers and environmental burden.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries' estimates, the out-of-spec rate for produce overall is said to reach 10–40% depending on the item.

Three measures to be tackled across the entire food chain

1. Utilizing out-of-spec products through processing

Rather than discarding out-of-spec produce, initiatives to convert its value through drying, freezing, juice processing, and the like are spreading in various places. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries also encourages this within its "Food Loss Reduction Promotion Plan," and there are cases where it is a subsidy-eligible project.

The dried-vegetable business that Agriture undertakes based in Kyoto is a model that turns such out-of-spec vegetables into value. By sourcing out-of-spec vegetables from farmers and drying and processing them to increase shelf life, it builds a supply chain that is nearly zero-waste.

2. Improving the accuracy of demand forecasting

Much of the food loss on the manufacturing and distribution side arises from missing the demand forecast. To break the flow of over-ordering → excess inventory → discarding, introducing an ordering and production management system that uses AI is effective. Utilizing demand-forecasting models that factor in the weather risk unique to produce will become future competitiveness.

3. Promoting consumers' correct understanding of date labeling

In Europe and the US, a shift is progressing toward labeling that separates the "Best Before" (recommended consumption date) and "Use By" (consumption deadline) rather than the "manufacturing date." In Japan too, accurately conveying to consumers the difference between the best-before date (the deadline for eating it at its tastiest) and the use-by date (the deadline after which it's better not to eat it) is directly tied to reducing household waste.

The point of contact between SDGs Goal 12 and agriculture

Target 12.3 of the SDGs' Goal 12, "Responsible Consumption and Production," sets the goal of "halving food waste by 2030." This is a goal that cannot be achieved unless all stages—agriculture, food processing, distribution, and consumption—collaborate.

For agricultural businesses to practice "no-waste farming" goes beyond mere cost reduction and becomes a direct contribution to the SDGs. Utilizing out-of-spec vegetables through processing, freezing and storing surplus produce, reducing surplus through direct contracts between farmers and processors—as such initiatives accumulate, food loss reduction from the agricultural field is realized.

FAQ

Q. How does Japan's food-loss volume compare with the world?

A. Japan's food loss is about 5.23 million tons annually (FY2022, MAFF). Compared with the world's total food-waste volume (about 1.3 billion tons, FAO estimate), the ratio is small, but converted per person, it is a waste volume at the developed-country level.

Q. What should we do to utilize out-of-spec vegetables?

A. First, grasping the proportion of out-of-spec produce by growing region is the priority. The MAFF's "Food Loss Reduction Promotion Plan" also has a subsidy program supporting conversion to processing uses. At Agriture, we have a track record of accepting them as dried vegetables.

Q. Specifically, what is needed to achieve SDGs Target 12.3?

A. To halve food waste by 2030, simultaneous, parallel efforts are needed at all stages—agriculture, distribution, and consumers. Reducing harvest loss at the agricultural stage and correcting over-ordering at the distribution stage are said to be particularly effective.

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