Onions at the Keihin Market Turn Toward a Price Decline as Saga-Grown Supply Increases—After a 2025 Poor Harvest Surged to 159% of Average, Reading the Downward Trend from April Onward

According to the vegetable outlook in the Japan Agricultural News (dated March 29, 2026),the onion market at the Keihin market is expected to turn to a downward trend. High prices had continued over a long period, but as shipping volumes of Saga-grown onions increase, supply and demand ease and it is shifting to a phase where price levels settle. It looks likely to become an occasion for food processors and commercial-ingredient procurement staff to rethink their future procurement strategy.

"159% of the average year" — how long the high-price market continued

According to Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries data at the end of January 2026, the wholesale price of onions had been moving at a high level of159% of the average year. The poor 2025 harvest of Hokkaido onions was the biggest factor, and with high fertilizer prices and yield reductions from abnormal weather compounding it, the production areas' supply capacity fell sharply.

The production-area makeup of onions is such thatthe three production areas of Hokkaido, Hyogo, and Saga account for about 80% of domestic production volume. Of these, Hokkaido-grown—the largest production area—is distributed as stored product from July to the following March, but the 2025 crop had thin inventory, and after the new year a "short-supply high" had continued. The outlook that "high prices will continue until April–May when Saga-grown comes out" was shared within the industry, and it developed exactly as forecast.

The full-scale arrival of Saga-grown is the turning point

Saga-grown onions havetheir main shipping period from April to August. Because the crop condition toward early spring is on a recovery trend, arrival volumes have begun to increase from late March to April. At the Keihin market, the observation is out that it will shift from a "holding" state to a downward trend, and for cabbage too, spring varieties are increasing in volume, so an overall settling of vegetable prices is anticipated.

Onions are one of the items with especially large price fluctuation among major vegetables. The high-price phase of 2024–2025 affected consumer household budgets too, and voices of "onions are expensive" came one after another even at supermarket bargain sales. As a reaction to this, the news of increased Saga-grown volume brings a sense of relief to the whole food industry.

The strategic value of "dried onion" shown by the onion price surge

This price-surge phase left a lesson for food-processing and OEM operators. On processing lines with a high dependence on fresh onions, procurement costs jumped, and quite a few manufacturers were forced to rethink their product costs.

On the other hand,Dried onion (dehydrated onion)From processors that adopt as a raw material, voices are rising that it is "less swayed by the market for raw onions." Because dried onion can be prepared during mass-production periods and stored long-term, it has procurement characteristics different from fresh product in terms of price stability. In fact, the global dried-vegetable market reached a scale of about 5.7 billion US dollars as of 2022 and continues to grow at over 7% annually, and in Japan too there is a structure in which demand is rising against the backdrop of wild swings in fresh-vegetable prices.

Also, the instability of vegetable prices including onions wasthe spring 2026 cabbage high-price phasesimilarly confirmed in as well, and the superiority of the business model of "drying seasonal vegetables and stocking them" has become all the clearer.

A good opportunity for "preparation" even in a price-decline phase

This period, when prices begin to fall, is also an important timing in raw-material procurement for dried vegetables. If fresh onions circulate abundantly in the market, centered on Saga-grown, drying with lowered purchase costs becomes possible. Because the production cost of dried onion is greatly swayed by the market for fresh raw materials, securing raw materials in a low-price range directly connects to improving product competitiveness.

In recent years,the vegetable-shortage problem among people in their 20sattention to dried vegetables has risen as a solution to, and it can be called a phase where, amid expected growth on the demand side, product development and OEM order expansion making use of the supply-cost-decline phase are called for.

The future market view and points to watch

It is important to continuously check the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries' supply-and-demand monitoring and the Japan Agricultural News' market information and to discern the procurement timing. Especially in the vegetable market, which has repeated cycles of surging again after a price recovery, the strategy of "securing it as a dried processed product during cheap periods" becomes an effective means of medium- to long-term cost management.

Summary

• The Keihin market onion market is expected to turn from a long high-price phase to a downward trend due to increased Saga-grown volume
• The market, which had surged to 159% of the average year due to the effect of the poor 2025 Hokkaido crop, is heading toward normalization
• The structure in which the three production areas of Hokkaido, Hyogo, and Saga account for about 80% of domestic production volume is a cause of price fluctuation
• Dried onion is being re-evaluated as a stable procurement means less swayed by the fresh-product market
• The price-decline phase of April–May can be a good opportunity to prepare raw materials for drying

Source:Japan Agricultural News, "This Week's Vegetable Outlook" (March 29, 2026) / Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corporation, onion supply-and-demand trends

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